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11. Juni 2024 · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
- Most Likely to Beat Trump
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election...
- Most Likely to Beat Trump
28. Juni 2018 · See the latest polls for the 2024 general election, with results for Biden vs. Trump and other candidates in key states. Compare the poll averages, dates, sample sizes and pollsters for each state.
Vor 2 Tagen · An updating estimate of the generic congressional ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in an election. For the 2024 cycle, we made changes to the way we calculate...
Vor 2 Stunden · The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model, updated Tuesday, fou…
Vor einem Tag · Both Biden and Trump have states they can probably count on winning. But those solid states won’t get them to 270 electoral votes.
Vor 5 Tagen · Biden defenders have pointed to a 538 forecast of the fall election that shows the president’s chances of winning have barely moved post-debate, remaining at a 48-in-100 chance of winning. In...
Vor einem Tag · Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.
