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16. Juni 2024 · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Vor 2 Tagen · An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
Vor 2 Tagen · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE.
Vor 3 Tagen · Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page.
538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election. This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning.
11. Juni 2024 · For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. 1. Calculate polling averages.
