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  1. 28. Juni 2018 · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

    • President

      When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster...

    • National

      When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster...

    • RSS

      Update (March 28): Our readers have spoken, and we listened....

    • All Posts by Ella Koeze

      Ella Koeze was a visual journalist for FiveThirtyEight. This...

    • Ritchie King

      Ritchie King was a senior editor for data visualization at...

    • National Polls

      Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average,...

    • Senate Polls

      Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the...

  2. 28. Juni 2018 · Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

  3. 28. Juni 2018 · Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential...

  4. 18. Juni 2020 · Our New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points Nationally. But the race is closer in swing states, which could allow Trump to win the Electoral College if the race tightens. By Nate...

  5. 10. März 2023 · We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days 1 before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election, and every presidential primary, since 1998...

    • Nathaniel Rakich
    • 538 polls1
    • 538 polls2
    • 538 polls3
    • 538 polls4
    • 538 polls5
  6. 12. Juni 2020 · Early polls continue to give Biden an edge over Trump. Average margin in states where at least one poll was conducted since May 1

  7. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.